Summer Roundup – 12/09/22

We’ve summarised the top stories of this summer into an easily digestible briefing, so that you can stay up to date on what’s happening around the world. You can subscribe to receive the briefing in your inbox each week.

UK Business & Economics

  1. Kwasi Kwarteng OE has been appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer in the new Truss cabinet. Since taking the position, Kwarteng has sacked the top civil servant at the Treasury, Sir Tom Scholar. He met with market and city leaders on Wednesday morning to outline the PM’s new pro-growth economic policy, including immediate financial support for families and firms.
  2. Over the summer, the cost of living in the UK has accelerated, with the Consumer Price Index reaching a high of 10.1% from 9.4% in June. The largest rise, of 0.26 percentage points, has come from food and non-acholic beverages which was three times the size of the next largest increase – recreation and culture at (0.09 percentage points). According to PWC, inflation is expected to peak at 17% next year unless there is government intervention between 10-13%.
  3. The UK growth outlook has deteriorated. According to PWC there are two situations which might affect growth; given a harsh winter, growth is expected to be at 3.1% in 2022, -1.3% in 2023, and -0.3% in 2024, given a mild winter, growth is estimated to be 3.6% in 2022, 0.2% in 2023, and 0.6% in 2024.

International Business & Economics

  1. Gazprom, Russian State energy company, has indefinitely halted deliveries of gas through Nord Stream 1 Pipeline. Norway is now the biggest supplier of gas to Western Europe and with such shortages, European inflation has risen to 9.1% this August.
  2. Germany has announced last week a €65 billion package to curb soaring energy costs. The package is substantially bigger than two previous ones, and includes one-off payments to the most vulnerable and tax-breaks to energy-intensive businesses. The package comes amid concerns that European support for Ukraine is declining due to high costs of living.
  3. China’s predicted economic growth is at 3%, missing the government target’s of 5.5%, largely due to the enforcement of the Zero-Covid Policy enforced across this summer. Goldman Sachs has estimated that the cities impacted by lockdowns account for 35% of China’s GDP. 
  4. Russia’s economy has shrank by 4.1% over Q2 of 2022 as the effect of EU sanctions are starting to become apparent. The European Council of the European Union has predicted that Russian inflation will reach 22% in late 2022, with an additional 30.9% drop in exports. 
  5. The Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has claimed that he intends to raise interest rates to restrict the rate of inflation. Despite this, the US added 315,000 jobs to the economy in August and inflation reduced from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July 2022.

UK Politics

  1. Liz Truss has become the UK’s new prime minister following Boris Johnson’s resignation in July and the Conservative party leadership vote on the 5th of September. Truss’s current priority is to cut taxes, easing the cost of living crisis, promising to reverse the recent increase in national insurance and to cancel the scheduled increase in corporation tax. Her policies have been labelled ‘Trussenomics’.
  2.  The Department for International Trade, previously run by Truss, was handed its first enforcement notice in seven years by the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) due to increased response times. The Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, previously run by Kwarteng, was similarly reprimanded by the ICO after failing to respond to freedom of information requests on time.
  3. The PM is due to attend three ceremonies on the King’s tour of the UK in mourning for the Queen. However, it has been confirmed that, contrary to previous reports, Liz Truss will not be accompanying the King on his whole tour, which is due to start on Monday as he heads to Scotland.

International Politics

  1. Her Majesty the Queen Elizabeth II died in Balmoral Castle on the 8th September 2022. On Sunday the 11th September, her coffin left Balmoral for the Palace of Holyroodhouse in Edinburgh. Her Majesty’s funeral is scheduled for the 19th September, which has been announced as a national bank holiday. King Charles III was proclaimed as the new monarch in St James’s Palace, London, on Saturday 10th. 
  2. A new version of the Iran nuclear deal is being discussed in an attempt to ease international sanctions against the country. The deal, however, would likely be very different from the original agreement in 2015, as Iran’s current president Ebrahim Raisi is seen as more hardline and anti-west than his predecessor.
  3. China announced it would halt cooperation with the US on areas including climate change and military operations, while imposing sanctions against House speaker Nancy Pelosi, following Chinese outrage at Pelosi’s unannounced visit to Taiwan on August 2nd.
  4. Deadly fighting between armed groups in South Sudan’s Upper Nile state has prompted thousands to flee from their homes, triggering further violence in displacement camps.
  5. China’s ruling Communist Party will revise its constitution to include “major strategic thinking” according to state media. This is will give more power to President Xi Jin Ping, enshrining his philosophy into the charter.

Written by Philip Weaver and Rob Webb

Leave a comment