UK Economics

1. Rishi Sunak officially declared that he has met his pledge to halve the rate of inflation by year end. The consumer prices index was 10.7% at the beginning of 2023, but it fell to 4.6% in September. Inflation is now at its lowest point since October 2021. 
2. Contrary to economists’ predictions of a 0.3% rise, UK retail sales volumes fell 0.3% in October, showing that consumers are curbing their spending in the face of inflation. Retail sales are 2.7% lower than they were last year.
3. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced £2.5bn supplementary funding to provide support for those experiencing unemployment or long-term sickness, but will also aim to decrease the number of those who are ‘choosing to coast on the hard work of taxpayers’. 

World Economics

1. US inflation in October fell by more than expected to 3.2%, the first decline since August. The yield on Treasury bonds has fallen in value from 4.6% to 4.4%. 
2. China experienced deflation in October. This was the sixth time in the last nine months that prices have fallen from the previous month. China’s economy is still predicted to grow by 5.0% in 2024.
3. President of Goldman Sachs Japan Masanori Mochida has announced his retirement without appointing a successor. Goldman has suffered a large outflow of labour in recent years; many speculate that Mochida’s departure reflects internal concern that the bank needs new leadership to keep up with its rivals such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley.
4. President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde has announced she will not cut interest rates for ‘at least the next couple of quarters’, in order to bring down inflation to its 2.0% target. As of this past October, it was 2.9%.
5. Japan’s economy contracted by 2.1% in the third quarter, or by 0.5% compared to the previous quarter, driven by weak household consumption and business spending. Business investment contracted 0.6% and imports expanded 1.0%, both indicating that inflation, currently at 3%, is starting to impact domestic demand. 

UK Politics

1. Rishi Sunak’s appointment of David Cameron as the Foreign Secretary has proven divisive. The reappointment has drawn strong criticism from the Right of the party. Whilst Sunak hopes this may help turn the tide on the polls, many people blame Cameron for the state of UK politics since his Brexit referendum.
2. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has left open the possibility of tax cuts in his Autumn Statement, insisting that he would not “sacrifice the progress on inflation”. The Bank of England has forecast zero growth until 2025, but experts suggest that Hunt could have over £10 billion to spend on tax cuts due to the slowing of inflation. 
3. The right wing party “Reform UK” is splitting the right-wing vote, with its leader Richard Trice insisting that every Conservative candidate will face a Reform UK opponent. Though a minor party, Reform UK could hinder the Conservatives greatly in its attempt to prevent a landslide Labour victory.

World Politics

1. The World Health Organisation has declared Gaza’s largest hospital a “death zone”, after UN workers visited the site and found a mass grave near the entrance. Meanwhile, the White House says that negotiations to free Hamas hostages are closer than “perhaps any point”.
2. President Biden is on track for a near-historic deficit for an incumbent. Most polls give Trump an edge of 2 to 4 points over Biden. In contrast, over the last 80 years incumbents have led their eventual challenger by 10 points at this stage on average. The only other incumbent to be this far behind: Trump in 2019.
3. President Biden’s summit with Xi Jinping in San Francisco has helped smooth over US-China tensions. However, Biden’s approach of “trust but verify” to China left some major issues unresolved. Biden remained firm over Taiwan, while Xi warned not to “suppress or contain” China.
4. On Sunday, Argentinians voted in the election. The two candidates were Peronist Economy Minister Sergio Massa, who oversaw the country’s worst economic crisis in two decades and libertarian Javier Milei. Many chose not to vote at all. Trump, Bolsanaro, and other far-right figures have since praised Milei’s victory.
5. Liberia’s President, George Weah, conceded defeat to his opposition candidate Joseph Boakai after a tight election (49% to 51%). Whilst praised for a peaceful transition of power, Weah’s term was marred by corruption scandals and allegations of mismanagement. 

Written by Mark Somers and Sachin Thakrar