News Briefing – 28/04/2024

UK Economics 

  1. On 22 April the FTSE 100 index closed at a new all time high of 8023.87 points, surpassing the previous record of 8012.53 in February 2023. UK shares have benefitted from a depreciation of the Pound against the US dollar, which has improved exports. Easing tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of interest rate cuts have also boosted the index.
  2. UK food and grocery inflation fell to a 30-month low of 3.2% in mid-April, as higher interest rates paired with falling energy and fertiliser costs continue to ease the cost-of-living crisis. Food inflation has fallen from a peak of 19.2% in March 2023, in the aftermath of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
  3. New fiscal data showed that the UK government borrowed more than expected in March. Public sector net borrowing stood at £11.9bn, higher than previous projections of £10.2bn. This has cast further doubt on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s wish for further tax cuts before the general election.
  4. On 24 April the Labour Party made a new pledge to renationalise the UK’s passenger rail network within the first term of a Labour government. This will be achieved by gradually assuming state control as contracts with private rail operators expire.

World Economics 

  1. The US Federal Reserve will make its rate-setting announcement on Wednesday, May 1st. Given that inflation is not declining as quickly as the Fed had hoped, it is expected that the committee will not alter the base rate. Investors now anticipate a rate reduction later in the year – possibly even following the US presidential election in November.
  2. Chinese factory profits decreased 3.5% in March compared to the same time last year. Official data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics has raised concerns that industrial overcapacity is impeding Beijing’s attempts to rekindle growth.
  3. On Tuesday April 30th, official inflation data for the Eurozone will be released. Inflation in the Eurozone has fallen steadily for the past 17 months, but according to a Reuters poll of economists, headline inflation is expected to stay unchanged this month at 2.4%.
  4. In response to growing worries about Huawei’s development of advanced semiconductors, the US is pressuring allies in Europe and Asia to impose stricter export controls on tools and technology related to chips to China.

UK Politics 

  1. On Thursday, May 2nd, the UK will hold local elections across the country. The Conservatives are expected to lose over 400 council seats and several high-profile mayoral positions, which could prompt Tory rebels to launch a leadership challenge against Rishi Sunak.
  2. The Prime Minister’s flagship Rwanda bill received royal assent on Thursday. The bill aims to deter small boat crossings of the English Channel by deporting illegal immigrants to Rwanda. Rishi Sunak has pledged that the first flights will leave as early as July, “come what may”.
  3. Ireland’s foreign minister and deputy PM, Micheál Martin, has claimed that asylum seekers are already beginning to leave Britain for Ireland in response to the bill. On Monday 29 April it is widely expected that the Home Office will launch a UK-wide operation to detain asylum seekers in preparation for their deportation to Rwanda. 
  4. Humza Yousaf is facing the prospect of two no confidence motions in the Scottish Parliament, after axing his power sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens last week. Yousaf’s survival will depend on the vote Ash Regan, sole MSP of the nationalist Alba Party, which broke off from the SNP in 2021. 

World Politics

  1. On 24 April, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez announced that he was cancelling all official engagements in order to reflect on his future. The announcement has come following multiple corruption allegations against his wife, Begoña Gomez.
  2. A new Haitian government was sworn in during a secret ceremony on 25 April. The event comes nearly two months after a gang uprising plunged the national political system into chaos, with former Prime Minister Ariel Henry formally resigning in March. 
  3. Multiple cabinet ministers from Japan’s long-term ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) have resigned amidst an ongoing government corruption scandal. Numerous media reports have accused LDP politicians of taking an excess amount of funds from fundraisers. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s approval ratings have plummeted to below 20%, the worst for any Japanese PM in more than a decade.
  4. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem has come under intense public scrutiny after sharing an anecdote in her new memoir of how she shot her 14-month-old dog, Cricket. Mrs Noem, who is speculated to be soon announced as Donald Trump’s running mate for this year’s presidential election, has been widely condemned online.

Written by Edgar Brown, Shreyas Veturi and Keshav Hajarnavis

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