UK Economics 

1. On 2 May the OECD released new forecast data for the UK economy. Its projections suggest that the UK economy will grow by just 0.4% this year, slower than any G7 country except Germany. Average inflation will stand at 2.7% over 2024, the highest rate in the G7.
2. UK mortgage rates have ticked up over the past two weeks, as markets widely anticipate the Bank of England to hold its base rate at 5.25% on Thursday. A sustained rise in borrowing costs have seen average mortgage rates increase from 5.55% in January to 5.93% in May.
3. UK house prices unexpectedly fell for a second consecutive month in April. Data released by the building society Nationwide suggests that house prices fell by 0.4% on average, as mortgage rate hikes have fed through to weaker demand in the housing market.
4. From Tuesday to Thursday members of the ASLEF train driver’s union will stage 24-hour strikes at each of England’s national rail operators, marking the latest round of disruption in a 22-month pay dispute. 

World Economics 

1. On Monday 6 May, Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen asked China’s president to stop supporting Russia in its conflict in Ukraine and cautioned Xi Jinping that the EU needs to defend itself against low-cost Chinese goods.
2. The head of Indonesia’s monetary policy department stated that the central bank is “prepared for the worst” and will offer additional support for the rupiah if necessary. When the rupiah fell to multiyear lows last month, Bank Indonesia was ready to step in and stabilise the currency market, but it would not rely just on intervention.
3. In April, the US added 175,000 jobs, far less than the 241,000 growth that a Bloomberg survey had expected. The fact that this is the lowest increase in six months indicates that the labour market in the largest economy in the world is starting to cool. 
4. An innovative new bond type that would tie dividends to governance improvements and economic growth might emerge from negotiations to finally end Sri Lanka’s extended $13 billion debt default—a goal that investors in emerging market bonds have long pushed for. 

UK Politics 

1. On 29 April Humza Yousaf resigned as Scottish First Minister, ahead of a no-confidence motion in his leadership that he was widely expected to lose. Former Deputy First Minister, John Swinney, has already been elected to replace Yousaf as SNP leader. 
2. In the local elections held on 2 May the Conservatives lost more than 470 councillors, with the Labour Party making a strong net gain of over 180 council seats. Despite this, in a shock result Labour lost overall control of Oldham Council to independent candidates standing on a pro-Gaza platform.
3. Labour’s Sadiq Khan easily won a third term as London Mayor, with a lead of over 276,000 votes. In the Tees Valley Conservative Mayor Ben Houchen, who had largely distanced himself from his party during the campaign, also won re-election.
4. In a dramatic result Conservative Mayor Andy Street was unseated in the West Midlands by Labour’s Richard Parker, by a margin of just 1500 votes. Labour’s triumph will be tempered by the strong showing of pro-Gaza candidate Akhmed Yakoob, who secured 11.7% of the vote.

World Politics

1. Justice Juan Merchan, the judge involved in former President Donald Trump’s hush-money trial, has warned Mr Trump that he risks jail time after being found to have violated gag orders. Mr Trump has already been fined $9000 over gag order violations.
2. On 6 May, the Hamas leadership team announced that it had accepted the terms of a ceasefire deal in Gaza. In a public statement, the group disclosed that it had informed Qatari and Egyptian mediators of its decision.
3. Three Indian citizens have been detained and charged over the killing of Canadian Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. The killing of Mr Nijjar last June sparked a diplomatic row as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau swiftly alleged that India’s government may have been involved.
4. On 6 May, Chadian citizens flocked to the polling booths to elect a new president. The election, which was supposed to happen in 2022 but got delayed by President Itno (the incumbent and favourite), is the first in three decades. 

Written by Edgar Brown, Shreyas Veturi and Keshav Hajarnavis