World Politics 

1. European leaders, along with allies like Canada and Turkey, have agreed on a plan to support Ukraine amid the ongoing war with Russia. The UK committed £1.6 billion in loans for Ukraine to purchase over 5,000 air defense missiles, as part of a broader $3.2 billion aid package.  

2. US support for Ukraine has reached a new low after US military aid for Ukraine was paused on the 4th of March. This is following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s  explosive meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the Oval Office earlier last week, where Trump accused Zelensky of not being ‘thankful’.  This encounter has prompted European leaders to take a more active role in seeking peace and security solutions for Ukraine.  
    
3. Following the pause of US aid, Zelensky posted a statement on X thanking the US for its support, as well as stating his willingness to pursue a partial truce, especially in aerial combat. He also promised to sign a mineral deal with the US after he failed to do so in his trip to Washington.  

4. South Africa’s Reserve Bank Governor, Lesetja Kganyago, expressed alarm over rising right-wing populism threatening central bank independence. He warned that political interference in monetary policy could destabilize economies, citing examples from the U.S. and Turkey.  

5. Israel has halted all humanitarian aid entering Gaza after it accused Hamas of rejecting a ceasefire extension proposed by the US. Netanyahu argues that the current phase of the peace process, which ended on the 1st of March, should be extended in order for all remaining hostages to be freed. However, Hamas is unwilling to extend the ceasefire without guarantees that later phases will occur.  

World Economics 

1. Germany’s inflation rate remains unchanged, raising concerns about potential stagflation, a combination of stagnant economic growth and rising inflation, that in turn could affect the broader European economy.  

2. President Javier Milei hailed progress in Argentina’s economic recovery, reducing inflation from 26% to just over 2%, as well as achieving the first fiscal surplus in 14 years. He also announced plans for a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund to support ongoing economic reforms.  

3. The International Monetary Fund projects global economic growth to continue at 3.2% during 2024 and 2025, mirroring the pace of 2023. Advanced economies may see a slight acceleration, while emerging markets might experience a modest slowdown.  

UK Politics 

1. Amid straining transatlantic relations over Ukraine and tariffs, a constructive meeting between President Trump and the PM suggests an optimistic outlook. Furthermore, President Trump has hinted that a “real trade deal”, free of tariffs can be realised between the UK and the US, complementing Starmer as a “tough negotiator”. 

2. Keir Starmer also emphasised the announcement of the hike in defence spending to 2.5% of UK GDP, something which Trump had been calling for. The PM also assured Trump that the UK is prepared to take a leading position in supporting the security of Ukraine through a “peace through strength” approach. 

3. The UK plains to cut its aid budget from £15.3 billion to an estimated £9.2 billion in order to supplement rising defence costs. In protest, International development minister Anneliese Dodds resigned on Friday, marking the first resignation over policy contention since when Starmer assumed office. 

UK Economics: 

1. UK house prices rose by 0.4% in February, outpacing forecasts with an annual increase of 3.9%, as the property market showed ‘resilience’ in the face of affordability pressures. This was driven by buyers rushing to ‘complete purchases’ before the stamp duty changes in April, which will lower the ‘tax-exemption limit for first-time buyers.’ 

2. The pound has gained 1.7% against the dollar in February, marking its best monthly performance since September, reaching as high as $1.2715. Analysts have attributed this rally to positive UK data and the ‘unwinding of Trump trades,’ which had previously inflated the dollar. Additionally, hopes of a UK-US trade deal and ‘strong foreign demand for UK government bonds’ have further supported sterling. Despite this, economists warn that sustained gains ‘will depend on stable gilt markets’ and continued economic improvement. 

3. Thames Water customers have been ‘shocked’ by an unexpectedly high bill increase, marking a 47% rise this year, despite Ofwat permitting only a 35% rise by 2030. The company attributed the steep increase to ‘front-loading’ regulatory adjustments to fund infrastructure improvements. Rival bidders are currently ‘circling’ the UK’s largest water utility as it struggles with a ‘debt mountain’ of nearly £20 billion and attempts to head off the threat of temporary renationalisation.