UK Economics 

1. On Monday 23 September, the S&P Global flash UK Composite PMI fell to 51.0 for September (from 53.0 in August), with services slowing and manufacturing still in contraction, signalling weaker momentum into Q4. The softer survey points to slower GDP growth and eases the case for gradual BoE cuts.   
2. On Friday 26 September, 30-year gilt yields touched about 5.57%, near multi-decade highs, underscoring the rising cost of government borrowing ahead of November’s Budget.  
3. On Saturday 27 September, BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra argued for faster rate cuts, saying temporary factors are keeping inflation elevated; she dissented for a 25bp cut at the September meeting (base rate 4.0%). Her stance flags a growing split on the MPC over the pace of easing.   

World Economics 

1. U.S. August personal consumption rose 0.6% m/m, with inflation broadly in line with expectations, according to data released on Friday 26 September. The print kept hopes alive for further Fed cuts, supporting risk sentiment.   
2. China’s industrial profits jumped 20.4% y/y in August, taking January–August growth to 0.9% after a long slump, official data showed on Saturday 27 September. The rebound eases deflation worries but comes despite weak demand.  
3. Japan’s September Tankan (due Wednesday 1 October) is expected to show a slight improvement in big-manufacturer sentiment (DI ~+14), while August industrial production is forecast −0.9% m/m. Soft production and firmer sentiment leave BoJ normalisation on a cautious path.   

UK Politics 

1. On Sunday 28 September at Labour Conference, Chancellor Rachel Reeves trailed a guarantee of paid work for young people on Universal Credit who have been out of work or study for 18 months. The jobs guarantee is pitched alongside a pledge to balance day to day spending by 2029.   
2. Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged activists to unite for the “fight of our lives” against Reform UK as Labour’s polling softens ahead of conference week. The leadership is holding the line on fiscal restraint while pushing housing growth via new towns plans.   
3. The Conservative Party gathers in Manchester from Sunday 5 October; pre-conference positioning centres on tax, growth and migration. Expect contrasts with Labour’s fiscal rules as the Opposition seeks to sharpen dividing lines.   

World Politics 

1. On Sunday 28 September, Russia launched one of the war’s largest combined drone-missile attacks on Ukraine, lasting over 12 hours and killing at least four people. Poland briefly closed nearby airspace as Kyiv urged tougher energy sanctions on Moscow.   
2. With the U.S. fiscal year ending on Monday 30 September, Republicans pressed Democrats for a stop-gap bill to avert a shutdown. A lapse would hit federal services and dampen Q4 growth, adding policy uncertainty to markets.   
3. On Sunday 28 September, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is working with Washington on a new Gaza ceasefire plan ahead of a White House meeting; Gaza’s death toll was reported above 66,000 by local authorities. Any truce progress would reshape regional risk premia.   
4. In the South Caucasus, analysts noted tentative progress in Armenia–Azerbaijan normalisation this week and its potential regional spillovers. A durable peace could re-route trade and energy corridors across the region.